This posting is contributed by political consultant and NC SPIN panelist Brad Crone

Is the defeat of Bobby Etheridge a real shocker? You could see the pressure mounting in the summer of 2009 when more than 50 protesters showed up to picket at Etheridge's annual August birthday bash and fundraiser at Harnett Central Middle School near Erwin.

Alarm bells should have sounded them. So throughout the fall of 2009 and the winter of 2010, voters were inundated with news of a healthcare bill that voters really didn't like.

Middle-class, white voters really don't like the idea that while they are getting up every morning, heading off to work and paying through the nose for their health care insurance, that someone who isn't working, or doesn't want to pay for health care insurance will now be getting the same insurance that those who play by the rules and work their butts off to have it.

These voters don't care if their health insurance is higher because those who don't have health insurance coverage end up access the most expensive care in the emergency rooms. It's a situation in politics of the power of belief trumps a rational argument.

Etheridge didn't get that. He didn't see the political liability a vote for the health care bill would cost him.

Most voters were willing to give him a pass on the Stimulus bill, the TARP bill and even the Cap and Trade bill, but the health care law was the last straw. Voters in the rural regions of the district saw the legislation as a "taking" and another example of the federal government complicating their life.

It was a deadly vote.

Voters didn't care that Etheridge was the only member of the powerful Ways and Means Committee from North Carolina. As a matter of fact, Etheridge is the first member on Ways and Means since 1949. That plum assignment may have also been part of his undoing.

Etheridge felt obligated to support the Speaker Nancy Pelosi's liberal agenda because she had appointed him to the Ways and Means Committee.  Etheridge's unwillingness and inability to buck the leadership cost him back home.

Congressman McIntyre, Congressman Kissell and Congressman Health Shuler all voted against the Patient Affordable Care Act and they are all going back to Washington.

The health care reform bill was the last act for Etheridge in a tumultuous political year.

Can he come back?

Etheridge is a darn good retail politician.  If he wants to serve in the U.S. House, the 2012 campaign starts today. He should use the next two years to come home, talk with his constituents and re-connect with the voters across his district.

Two years is a long time in politics so an Etheridge - Ellmers rematch isn't out of the question.