The joint legislative redistricting committee is expected to begin rolling out their plans for rearranging North Carolina’s congressional and legislative districts next week and you should expect to see the victors (legislative Republicans) enjoying the spoils when the maps are revealed. Republicans understand this is their best opportunity since Reconstruction to change the political landscape of this state, a way to maintain their control into the next decade. Regardless of the rhetoric about fair and impartial actions you can expect to see Republican footprints all over these maps. Click here to see the current districts.

 Some have boasted this is easy, given the sophistication of computer modeling, but those assigned the tasks are finding some real challenges.

Let’s begin with the 1^st Congressional District held by G.K. Butterfield, meandering through eastern rural counties. In order to maintain roughly equal population in all 13 districts and keep this a “majority minority” district, as required by the Voting Rights Act, this district is in for some sweeping change. This region didn’t grow to the degree other districts have enjoyed so count on it encompassing even more geography than the present range from the northern borders down to the Onslow coast. There are rumors the new map might even increase the percentage of African American voters; some speculate it could even wander into southwest Raleigh.

We hear rumblings that Mike McIntyre’s 7^th District and Larry Kissell’s 8^th, which are adjacent, might be reconfigured in such as way the two might be forced to run against each other. The 7^th goes from southeastern Carolina up past Fayetteville while the 8^th currently includes Cabarrus and parts of Union County east to Scotland. It is easy to see how these two could be made more compact.

The same could be the case with the 4^th and 13^th, currently held by the David Price and Brad Miller, respectively. Price’s current district includes large parts of Wake, Durham, Orange and Chatham Counties, while Miller’s borders parts of Wake, Durham and Orange while also including northern counties like Rockingham, Caswell and Person. One could foresee new maps that might put two incumbents in the same district.

Incumbent Heath Shuler’s 11^th District will become larger and more Republican, prompting some to speculate the conservative former Washington quarterback might call an audible and switch to the Republican Party. We’ve heard those rumors before, however and they have proved false. An interesting turn might see the 11^th take in some of the counties now in Virginia Foxx’s 5th, including Foxx’s home county. Even so Foxx is expected to continue to enjoy a strong Republican base. We haven't heard much discussion about the 10th District of incumbent Patrick McHenry.

Mel Watt’s famous “inkblot” 12^th will remain another “majority minority” seat. The 9^th, held by Sue Myrick, will shrink in geography but will remain Republican and Howard Coble will be protected in his 6^th district. Of real interest will be the reconfigured 2^nd district, now held by freshman congresswoman Renee Ellmers and the 3^rd held by Walter Jones, also contiguous in many counties. We hear mapmakers are trying to redraw the conservative 2^nd so that it will ensure a Republican officeholder while also protecting Jones’ 3^rd. Depending on the layout former Congressman Bob Etheridge, who has made no secret of his desire to recapture his seat, may find himself in even less friendly environs than before. 

 We will soon learn how Republicans plan to take advantage of their new positions of power and the opportunity presented them.